“When the facts change, I change my mind” – John Maynard Keynes.
A series of Super-forecasting Tipping-Point Analysis Articles in Q1 will address what we believe are some of the most impactful questions for 2025. These will be linked to Watch Services, such as PFAS+.
Super-forecasting: is the practice of using a weighing scales of continually updated evidence, that informs probability of an outcome, often, a tipping point.
It was observed, that amateur forecasters, who continually updated their forecasts with new information, were able to outperform professionals in government intelligence agencies, when it came to answering questions such as, if political tensions in a region would erupt into an all-out conflict. 🙏 Steve Gluck for introducing to BlueTech Book Club!
Evidence is stacked on either side, and weighed. A baseline hypothesis is established, and each new point of data, is used to fine-tune and update the assessment to determine the direction of travel and probability of impact.
Leading experts in our Technology Assessment Group, will build the straw man, use BlueTech Research data and input from Research Analysts to inform the point of view, and as the man said, if the facts change, we will change our mind. The impact in each case will be interpreted in terms of what it means for key client archetypes. Like Plato’s ‘Idea Horse’, we have an ‘Idea CTO’, M&A Team, R&D Group, Corporate Water End-user, Consultant, and Investor. Seen from the perspective of each protagonist, the impact of the story will change and the actions you should take will be different.
We will also leverage the wisdom of crowds, in this case, the wisdom of the BlueTech Community – a participatory game in which we all win.
Writing 2,500 years ago, Sun Tzu, in the Art of War noted: Every Battle Is Won Before It Is Ever Fought.
‘Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat.”- Sun Tzu – 512 BC
While the metaphor of war, assumes a zero sum game, in water the opportunities for value creation are abundant and a rising tide will lift all boats – so long as the boats don’t get disoriented in a storm, fail the see the lighthouses, miss the tipping points and end of wrecked on the rocks.
The first of these will relate to the question, of ‘Whether Biosolids will be applied to land in 5 years?’.
The issue of PFAS in Biosolids has been the topic of a series of articles by the excellent New York Times, journalist Hiroko Tabuchi.
There is weighing scales with evidence on both sides. The next article will dive into this.
Please share any super-forecasting questions you would like us to consider, any new facts that may change our minds, and hopefully, influence and inform yours!
